Business models and use cases

Who pays for a rotating station, and why? The thread's most-repeated conclusion is that the engineering is known and the motivation is missing.

Key results

  • "Engineering known, motivation missing" (lamontagne): rotating stations have been possible for decades, but there has been no interest since CAM was cancelled lamontagne, 2022-10-13; lamontagne, 2022-10-11.
  • edzieba: the minimum size and cost of a human demonstrator are high, and there has been no demand since the CAM cancellation edzieba, 2022-09-07.
  • Genial Precis: a "market hump", with no applications because there is no cheap human labour in LEO Genial Precis, 2022-09-07.
  • State the market category (Paul451): (a) an ISS-like research station for 3–20 professionals; (b) a work camp of 20+; (c) a hotel or cruise ship for 20+; (d) a settlement of 1000+ Paul451, 2022-12-09.
  • Use case first (Coastal Ron): customer pain → use case → business case. Business models are sell, lease or service (hotel) Coastal Ron, 2022-12-22; Coastal Ron, 2022-12-24. Funders require identified end users and ROI Coastal Ron, 2023-01-06. Barley: "suboptimal design that's good enough is the trick" Coastal Ron, 2022-12-22.

Candidate revenue sources

  1. Gravity research.
  2. Data exist for 1 g and 0 g only; mammal reproduction at partial g is unknown rklaehn, 2014-02-16.
  3. A baton offers every gravity level at once, serving many customers including long-term experiments; biomedical research is "big money" Twark_Main, 2022-08-31.
  4. nadreck: research won't pay for the facility; the station will be built for creature comfort (ski-lodge model), with science piggybacking nadreck, 2015-02-22.
  5. See research and testbeds.
  6. Crew health for zero-g workers.
  7. "Factory workers don't live in factories": zero-g factories plus AG residential stations (bunkhouse, hotel, health refuge) Coastal Ron, 2018-07-20; rakaydos, 2019-05-14.
  8. Peter_GST: AG alone has no near-term business case, so the ring supports microgravity R&D and manufacturing Peter_GST, 2025-04-10.
  9. Stations as industrial centres need beds, showers and toilets llanitedave, 2014-02-23.
  10. Tourism. The most often named "killer app" mikelepage, 2018-07-20; see tourism and hotels.
  11. In-space production (INSPA), a $100B+/yr industry. mikelepage's figure of merit: usable volume at a given g per unit moment of inertia mikelepage, 2022-09-28.
  12. Variable g leverages the micro-g production market, since setup and harvest are easier with buoyancy or sedimentation mikelepage, 2022-08-26.
  13. Variable- or high-g manufacturing niches; ZBLAN needs low vibration, which means free-flyers Asteroza, 2018-07-20.
  14. Refuge and reconditioning.
  15. AG stations as refuges at destination planets and in Earth orbit for returning crews Coastal Ron, 2018-07-31. If 1/3 g proves beneficial, Earth-orbit 1/3 g spas Cherokee43v6, 2018-07-31.
  16. Coastal Ron's Mars-g station as a gravity refuge for asteroid-belt miners on a long-term lease plus operations contract Coastal Ron, 2022-12-24.
  17. Re-acclimation after Mars return spacenut, 2019-04-10.
  18. Athletes and medical patients Bob Shaw, 2022-09-07; Olympic teams Asteroza, 2022-09-08. The launch-g hurdle limits patients edzieba, 2022-09-08.
  19. Other ideas.
  20. Hollywood studios and films Roy_H, 2018-07-20; entertainment demand is spotty Coastal Ron, 2018-07-20.
  21. Vacation, health spa, fertility clinic bad_astra, 2018-07-20.
  22. A transit hub and "Grand Central": a virtuous cycle of tourism, manufacturing, science and space force mikelepage, 2023-04-02.
  23. Cyclers as luxury transport rakaydos, 2024-03-25.
  24. Starship-derived stations as contract services, like GEOsat buses or HLS Paul451, 2022-12-31.
  25. Real estate. Financing via penthouses and condos lamontagne, 2022-12-07; JohnFornaro, 2022-10-21. A land-value gradient might finance it lamontagne, 2023-02-21.

Arguments against a business case

  • Jim: there is no need; microgravity is the ISS's purpose, and crew rotation handles health Jim, 2014-02-17.
  • KelvinZero: spin opposes LEO activity. It is irrelevant to microgravity killer apps, causes vibration, and makes docking and EVA harder KelvinZero, 2015-02-21.
  • rakaydos: an AG station needs a reason for gravity, a reason to be in space, and a task not easier done remotely or on a planet. LEO industry is better as zero-g teleoperated work, and spin reduces tourism benefits rakaydos, 2024-03-25.
  • Coastal Ron: "no business case for living in LEO" Coastal Ron, 2026-09-18.
  • Twark_Main: living in space is fundamentally costlier (no free biosphere) Twark_Main, 2022-12-07.
  • JohnFornaro: the economic case can't close now; a "Pharaonic system" JohnFornaro, 2023-01-28.

Scale strategy

Open questions

  • Which customer pays first: a government health-research program, tourists, or companies with zero-g workers?
  • Does Starship-era cheap launch create the "cheap human labour in LEO" the market hump needs?

Sources

Forum posts

  • rklaehn, 2014-02-16 (reply #10, 3 likes): Research value (3 likes). Post.
  • Jim, 2014-02-17 (reply #33): No need. Post.
  • llanitedave, 2014-02-23 (reply #119, 5 likes): Industrial centres (5 likes). Post.
  • KelvinZero, 2015-02-21 (reply #329): Spin opposes LEO activity. Post.
  • nadreck, 2015-02-22 (reply #365): Ski-lodge model. Post.
  • Roy_H, 2018-07-20 (reply #994, 1 like): Anchor tenants. Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2018-07-20 (reply #995): Workers don't live in factories. Post.
  • Asteroza, 2018-07-20 (reply #997): ZBLAN; high-g niche. Post.
  • mikelepage, 2018-07-20 (reply #998): Killer app tourism. Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2018-07-20 (reply #1000): Entertainment spotty. Post.
  • bad_astra, 2018-07-20 (reply #1001): Spa/fertility clinic. Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2018-07-31 (reply #1084): Refuge/reconditioning. Post.
  • Cherokee43v6, 2018-07-31 (reply #1087): 1/3 g spas. Post.
  • spacenut, 2019-04-10 (reply #1527, 3 likes): Mars return re-acclimation (3 likes). Post.
  • rakaydos, 2019-05-14 (reply #1636): Residential hab for zero-g workers. Post.
  • mikelepage, 2022-08-26 (reply #1728, 2 likes): Variable-g for production. Post.
  • Twark_Main, 2022-08-31 (reply #1739): Baton serves many customers. Post.
  • edzieba, 2022-09-07 (reply #1758, 2 likes): No demand since CAM. Post.
  • Genial Precis, 2022-09-07 (reply #1759): Market hump. Post.
  • Bob Shaw, 2022-09-07 (reply #1762, 1 like): Athletes & patients. Post.
  • Asteroza, 2022-09-08 (reply #1767): Olympic teams. Post.
  • edzieba, 2022-09-08 (reply #1769, 2 likes): Launch g hurdle. Post.
  • mikelepage, 2022-09-28 (reply #1797, 1 like): INSPA; figure of merit. Post.
  • lamontagne, 2022-10-11 (reply #1970, 1 like): No interest since CAM. Post.
  • lamontagne, 2022-10-11 (reply #2009): Mass-produced modular stations. Post.
  • mikelepage, 2022-10-12 (reply #2023, 1 like): 100 × 100. Post.
  • lamontagne, 2022-10-13 (reply #2075, 1 like): Motivation missing. Post.
  • lamontagne, 2022-10-20 (reply #2159): Luxury first. Post.
  • JohnFornaro, 2022-10-21 (reply #2166): Condo model. Post.
  • Twark_Main, 2022-12-07 (reply #2563): Space living costlier. Post.
  • lamontagne, 2022-12-07 (reply #2570, 1 like): Real estate financing. Post. Attachments: Graph.png.
  • Paul451, 2022-12-09 (reply #2623, 2 likes): Market categories (2 likes). Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2022-12-22 (reply #2691, 1 like): Use case → business case. Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2022-12-24 (reply #2704): Business models. Post.
  • Paul451, 2022-12-31 (reply #2732, 1 like): Contract services (1 like). Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2023-01-06 (reply #2781, 1 like): Funders need ROI. Post.
  • JohnFornaro, 2023-01-28 (reply #3153): Pharaonic. Post.
  • lamontagne, 2023-02-21 (reply #3390): Land value gradient. Post.
  • mikelepage, 2023-04-02 (reply #3572, 2 likes): LEO Grand Central (2 likes). Post.
  • mikelepage, 2023-04-27 (reply #3641, 1 like): Sold 100 times. Post. Attachments: sci-fi.png.
  • rakaydos, 2024-03-25 (reply #4609, 2 likes): Cyclers & belters (2 likes). Post.
  • Peter_GST, 2025-04-10 (reply #4844, 5 likes): AG alone no business case (5 likes). Post.
  • Coastal Ron, 2026-09-18 (reply #5132): No LEO business case. Post.